The Office for National Statistics has published its coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey for the UK for 5th January 2022, and the figures make sobering reading.
The ONS says that to provide interim estimates of coronavirus (COVID-19) during this period of high infections rates, it has published its headline results two days early in a shortened version of its usual release. This is to provide the latest estimate on infection levels at the earliest opportunity. A further breakdown of the same time period and a longer time series will be published on Fridays at midday.
Infections
The latest data highlights estimated figures for the week ending 31st December 2021. A reference date of 28th December has been used to account for anticipated additional test results for the last few days.
The number of COVID-19 infections includes all infections compatible with all variants and infections where the virus was too low for the variant to be identified.
An interactive tool on the ONS website, “Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights” explores the latest data and trends about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic from the ONS and other sources and is updated on Fridays.
Sarah Crofts, Head of Analytical Outputs for the COVID-19 Infection Survey said:
“We continue to see infections across the UK increase, with Omicron now the dominant variant across all four nations.
“There are early signs of a potential slowing of infections in London in the days before New Year’s Eve. However, it is too early to suggest this is a change in trend overall.
“The data continues to change rapidly, and we will continue to monitor the situation closely.”
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Main Points
England: The percentage of people testing positive continued to increase in the week ending 31st December 2021; the ONS estimates that 3,270,800 people in England had coronavirus (COVID-19) (95% credible interval: 3,163,500 to 3,377,500), equating to around 1 in 15 people.
Wales: The percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 continued to increase in the week ending 31 December 2021; the ONS estimates that 157,900 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 138,900 to 179,600), equating to around 1 in 20 people.
Northern Ireland: The percentage of people testing positive continued to increase in the week ending 31 December 2021; the ONS estimates that 72,900 in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 56,800 to 90,100), equating to around 1 in 25 people.
Scotland: The % of people testing positive continued to increase in the week ending 31 December 2021; the ONS estimates that 238,000 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 209,300 to 268,000), equating to around 1 in 20 people.
Variant Analysis: COVID-19 infections compatible with the Omicron variant continued to increase rapidly across England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland in the week ending 31 December 2021. Omicron is now the most common variant across all UK countries.
Regional Analysis for England: In the week ending 31st December 2021, COVID-19 infections continued to increase across all regions of England. The highest rates of infections were seen in London, where 1 in 10 would have tested positive, and the lowest in the South West of England, where 1 in 30 would have tested positive for COVID-19; there were some early signs in the last few days of 2021 that infections may no longer be increasing in London, but it is currently too early to suggest if this is a continuing change in trend.
Analysis for London: In the last few days of 2021, the trend in the percentage testing positive was uncertain for those in London who are secondary school ages and those aged 25 to 49 years, which may mean that infections are no longer increasing in London, but it is currently too early to suggest if this is a continuing change in trend.
Age Analysis for England: In England, in the week ending 31st December 2021, COVID-19 infections continued to increase across all age groups and were highest among those in school Year 12 to age 24.
Regulations
The news was announced at the same time as a change in regulations in coronavirus testing. People without symptoms will no longer need to confirm a positive lateral flow test with a PCR test – they will still have to self-isolate, but the process will be quicker. The UK Health Security Agency said that the change would come in from 11th January in England.
The change will be reviewed when the proportion of people with the virus in England drops below one percent – at the moment it is four percent.
Under this new guidance, anyone in England who receives a positive lateral flow device (LFD) test result should report their result on gov.uk and must self-isolate immediately, but will not need to take a follow-up PCR test. They will be contacted by NHS Test and Trace so that their contacts can be traced.
Anyone who tests positive will be able to leave self-isolation seven days after the date of their initial positive test if they receive two negative lateral flow test results, 24 hours apart, on days six and seven.
At the moment, anyone with a positive lateral flow test who has no symptoms needs a PCR test – carried out in a lab – to confirm their result. This can take days to arrive, and health officials are worried that people may not be isolating during this time. the delay is also contributing to the amount of time people are off work, which is causing a crisis in several areas including retail, hospitality, teaching and healthcare.
Dr Jenny Harries, chief executive of UKHSA, said: “While cases of Covid continue to rise, this tried-and-tested approach means that LFDs can be used confidently to indicate Covid-19 infection without the need for PCR confirmation.
She added: “I’m really grateful to the public and all of our critical workers who continue to test regularly and self-isolate when necessary, along with other practical and important public health behaviours, as this is the most effective way of stopping the spread of the virus and keeping our friends, families and communities safe.”
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