Figures just published by the Office for National Statistics show that the fertility rate in England and Wales has dropped to its lowest rate since 1938 – but what is the cause?
The ONS figures show that women in England and Wales had an average of 1.44 children between 2022 and 2023, the lowest rate recorded since 1938. Only 591,072 babies were born in 2023, fewer than in any year since 1977 and a fall of more than 14,000 on the previous year. There were 27,374 live births in Wales in 2023 and 563,561 in England. In Scotland, the total fertility rate also fell to 1.3, and the number of babies born was also down to the lowest ever figure of 45,935, according to the National Records of Scotland.
While the number of women of child-bearing age was at its highest ever at 12 million, the average age of new mothers and fathers has increased to 33.8 for fathers and 30.9 for mothers.
That gives the clue to why the fertility rate is down; it’s not ‘something in the water’, but rather economic and social pressures which are the cause.
in 1938, with a generation about to go to war, couples understandably delayed having children; in 2023, their reasons are more to do with the cost of living and the difficulty in getting on the property ladder.
The ONS research suggests that millennials, born up to the mid-1990s, are not having children because of financial pressures, not feeling ready or having not found the right partner.
A recent study from University College London (UCL) found that only one in four 32-year-olds in England who want children are actively trying to have them. Financial and work pressures were often cited as reasons for those born in 1989-90.
Decline
Greg Ceely, head of population health monitoring at the ONS, said that total fertility rates had been declining since 2010, but that the trend was particularly notable in some age groups. “The decline in fertility rates has been the most dramatic in the 20-24 and 25-29 age groups,” he said.
For countries to maintain their populations, the fertility rate needs to be around 2.1 children per woman – but is this a problem? In an over-populated world, isn’t it a good thing if the population declines?
The problem is mainly an economic one; as the population grows older, without a younger generation to take their place, the number of working age people is unable to sustain the population of the older and economically inactive generations.
Fertility rates are falling in most countries in the world, but despite a declining fertility rate in England and Wales since the 1970s, the population has continued to grow, largely because of immigration.
Immigration is seen as a solution to the problem of an ageing population, but it is politically and socially problematical.
Some experts suggest that government policies such as offering longer paid parental leave, more funding for childcare for working parents and more funding for fertility treatments in the NHS could increase the fertility rate. Others question whether these policies are effective or economically viable.
The ONS report shows that the most popular date for giving birth in 2023 was 28 September, which has been among the top 10 most popular birth dates for several years. The least likely day to be born in England and Wales is Boxing Day – it has held that position for 11 years in a row.
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